S&P 500 Posts New High, More Gains Likely Near Term; Mid- To Long-Term, Up To If Recent +VE Trends In Margin Debt And Flows Continue

posted in: Credit, Equities, Technicals | 0

The S&P 500 last week joined its peers to break out to new highs. More gains are likely in the near term. Mid-to long-term prospects are dependent on if the recent improvement seen in margin debt and equity flows persists. … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 16, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 889.4k, up 102.4k. At an annualized $709.9 billion, December’s retail sales were strong, better than expected and set a record. January’s preliminary count showed … Continued

Post-Pivot Spike In S&P 500-Focused ETF Flows Losing Steam – Bound To Catch Up With US Equity Indices At/Near Highs

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

The December 13th Fed pivot lit a fire under risk assets, leading equity shorts to cover and ETF inflows to jump. Flows, however, began to turn negative as the new year began. This does not help the equity bulls, even … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 9, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 787k, down 45.6k. The 200-day moving average (4.06 percent), which coincides with horizontal resistance at 4.1 percent, is standing like a rock. Since this … Continued

Persistently Lowered 4Q23 Earnings Bar Likely To Help S&P 500 Break Out, Bulls Hope This Is Not Used As Opportunity To Lock In Gains

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

The S&P 500 – a stone’s throw away from a fresh high – has gone sideways the past two weeks at just under 4800. Thursday’s CPI-induced selloff was bought. Persistently lowered 4Q23 earnings estimates can act as a tailwind for … Continued

Nasdaq 100 Retreats Shortly After Eclipsing Nov ’21 Record, S&P 500 Comes Within Spitting Distance of Jan ’22 Peak

posted in: Equities, Technicals | 0

Equities stumble out of the 2024 blocks. In the final sessions of December, the major US indices had either just broken out to new highs or were close to doing that. It remains to be seen if the weakness since … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 2, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 832.7k, up 27.7k. Amidst signs that the 10-year treasury yield is ready for a reflex rally, non-commercials’ net shorts in 10-year note futures went … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 26, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 805k, up 117.4k. Non-commercials are not pulling back. Far from it! Their holdings of net shorts in 10-year note futures went up another 17.1 … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 19, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 687.6k, up 130.6k. In the last week of 2022, non-commercials were net short 344,209 contracts in 10-year note futures. This week, they held 687,572 … Continued