CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 17, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 710.7k, down 2.2k. Yet another week and yet another intraday high! Thursday, the 10-year treasury yield reached the highest since July 2007 – a … Continued

Traders Prepare For Santa Rally, But With Defensive Bias

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

Traders are positioning for a Santa rally, but they are trying to play it safe. Intraday over the last six sessions, VIX (9.58) collapsed five points, in the process also losing shorter-term moving averages, as well as the 50- and … Continued

Post-Election Winners Look Fatigued, Rotation Candidate Not Yet In Focus

posted in: Equities, Technicals | 0

U.S. small-caps have had a phenomenal run post-election.  From November 8 close through the intra-day all-time high 1392.71 on December 9, the Russell 2000 small cap index jumped 16.5 percent.  It has come under slight pressure since that high, but … Continued

Markets Dance To Fed’s Tune Way Too Much … Matter Of Time Before This Backfires

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Markets are under the influence of the Fed’s rate hike talk – or a lack of it – a little too much … to such an extent that it can potentially backfire someday. Last Thursday, we learned that the ISM … Continued

US Equity Indices Flash Signs Of Fatigue Left And Right

That the green line in Chart 1 is increasingly taking the form of a coiled spring is non-debatable.  That the longer it stays compressed in oversold territory, the higher the odds of a spike higher is non-debatable.  What is debatable … Continued

Slight Rise In MMF Assets In Recent Weeks Not What Equity Bulls Want

posted in: Equities | 0

Through June, foreigners continued to bail out of U.S. stocks.  They sold $6.8 billion worth.  This was the fifth consecutive month of net selling, during which cumulatively they reduced holdings by $45.5 billion. On a 12-month rolling total basis, April … Continued

Divergences Abound But Can End With Vengeance

To say that stocks have diverged from a whole host of things ranging from earnings to Treasury bonds to crude oil to economic data is an understatement. This is not some new phenomenon … has been going on for a … Continued

Who Is Making Up For Lack Of Foreign Buying In Both U.S. Equities And Treasurys?

posted in: Credit, Equities, Technicals | 0

Have foreigners ceased to be a factor in the market for both U.S. equities and treasury securities? Makes you wonder looking at the Treasury International Capital System data. May’s numbers were released this Monday, and there was not much change … Continued