After 2 Weeks Of Indecision, Bulls Defend Trendline Support From Last Oct On S&P 500

posted in: Credit, Equities, Technicals | 0

Equity bears came up short last week, unable to take benefit of an opportunity to put the bulls on the defensive. Momentum remains with the bulls. With the S&P 500 having already rallied 28 percent from last October’s low, several … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 19, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 574k, down 29.5k. It was almost as if Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve chair, did not want equities to go lower. That is the feeling … Continued

Major US Equity Indices On Trendline Support From Last Oct, Or In Slight Breach, Even As Bears Hit Multi-Year Low

posted in: Equities, Technicals | 0

The major US equity indices closed last week either right on or in slight breach of trendline support from last October’s low. Bulls’ mettle is being tested, even as investor sentiment remains too giddy. The Nasdaq 100 ended the week … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 12, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 603.5k, down 109.7k. Fed funds futures traders are sticking with their outlook for three 25-basis-point cuts this year, with the first cut taking place … Continued

Bulls Scorn Last Week’s Potentially Bearish Candle On S&P 500, Even As Investors Intelligence Bears Hit 6-Year Low This Week

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With two more sessions to go this week, last week’s potentially bearish candle is not yet confirmed on the S&P 500. Concurrently, the bullish view continues to gather momentum as the ratio of Investors Intelligence bulls to bears crossed four … Continued

Amidst Pervasive Bullish Sentiment, Signs Of Exhaustion Show Up In US Equity Indices

posted in: Equities, Technicals | 0

Amidst ecstatic bullish sentiment, major US equity indices last week exhibited signs of exhaustion. Confirmation is needed, but equity bears may have an opening here – duration and magnitude notwithstanding. Equity bulls are too bulled up. Chart 1 combines three … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 5, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 713.3k, up 47.7k. Once again, markets are demanding more versus what the Federal Reserve is willing to give. Going into this week, fed funds … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 27, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 665.6k, down 63.5k. January’s PCE (personal consumption expenditures) price index came out Thursday. Ahead of the report, futures traders were pricing in three 25-basis-point … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 20, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 729.1k, down 31.5k. In the futures market, fed funds traders have now reduced rates outlook to three 25-basis-point cuts this year. This is right … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 13, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 760.5k, down 67.9k. FOMC minutes for the January 30-31 meeting are due out Wednesday. The policy-making body stood pat at that meeting, with the … Continued