Odds Growing Sharp Reflex Rally In S&P 500 Sooner Than Later

From early October, the S&P 500 is down 18 percent.  Important support lies at 2400, or just underneath.  Several indicators are at/near panic levels.  Risk-reward odds favor unwinding of these conditions sooner than later. There is blood on the Street.  … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 18, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 380.8k, down 13k. With pressure growing from diverse quarters, including the White House, to stay pat in this week’s meeting, the Fed went ahead … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 11, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 393.8k, up 100.6k. Next week – on 18-19 – the FOMC meets.  This is the last meeting this year.  A 25-basis-point raise is expected, … Continued

Bears Have Momo, But Need Extra To Break 2600 on S&P 500 In Next Several Sessions

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

The S&P 500 hurriedly jumped 6.4 percent in seven sessions.  Impatient bulls essentially handed out shorts an opportunity to once again show up at 2800.  The risk is the downside, but it is likely 2800-2600 remains intact in the next … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 27, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 284.2k, down 83k. Jerome Powell, Fed chair, moved markets on Wednesday.  A whole host of asset classes reacted to his Economic Club of New … Continued

Stocks Attempting To Form Base – This Week’s Action Could Provide Further Clues

There are signs of macro deceleration.  Equities may be starting to price this in, but are not panicking.  If the S&P 500 rallies near term, how investors behave around 2800 can signal what kind of deceleration lies ahead. On October … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 13, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 333.2k, down 206k. On October 5, the 10-year rate (3.07 percent) began retreating after touching 3.25 percent – the highest since May 2011.  Thursday … Continued

Indices Under Pressure – Again – Bulls Need To Defend Recent Lows

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

Major US equity indices are once again under pressure, likely eyeing recent lows.  In the event they are not breached, options can offer an opportunity for nimble traders. Bears were looking at decent odds to get aggressive last week.  The … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 6, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 539.2k, up 36.3k. In January, the 10-year Treasury rate broke out of 2.62 percent.  Then in September, it took out 2.95 percent, followed by … Continued