Peek into future through futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of April 14, 2015.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The 10-year yield fell in all five sessions.  Friday could have been different as March core CPI was initially treated as hawkish, but … Continued

Has margin debt peaked? Can have repercussions for stocks, C&I loans

posted in: Credit, Equities | 0

Sideways movement in margin debt a sign investors’ risk appetite waning? 35-year correlation between stocks and margin debt of 0.95, 2014 was only 0.28 In 2000 and 2007, peak in margin debt preceded peak in C&I loans by one-plus year … Continued

U.S. corporates refuse to get tempted by consumer-spending signal

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

Non-residential fixed investment contributed 0.68 percent to the four-percent growth in U.S. gross domestic product in the second quarter.  A much larger 1.69 percent came from personal consumption expenditures.  Back in 1Q08, non-residential fixed investment peaked at $1.99tn, preceded by … Continued