Flatter Yield Curve Makes Fed’s Job Harder – Rally In Financials In Limbo

Ten-year Treasury yields are not going along with the Fed’s tightening posture.  This could be because of a technical reason or yields could be sending an ominous message. Yields reached a historic low 1.34 percent last July, and have been … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 3, 2017. 10-year note: Tuesday brought December’s ISM manufacturing index, which rose 1.5 points month-over-month to a two-year high 54.7; orders jumped 6.8 points m/m to a 25-month high.  Ten-year yields … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 20, 2016. 10-year note: Ten-year Treasury yields peaked at 15.8 percent in September 1981, then dropping to 1.39 percent by July 2012.  In July this year, those lows were slightly undercut; the … Continued

Divergent Price Signal – Prudent To Have One Foot Out The Door

Price is the final arbiter … is an often-quoted axiom in finance.  Has truth in it.  For a trend to establish itself, price has to cooperate.  As long as this continues, there is no use fighting it.  Of course, all … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of July 5, 2016.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: One can make a cogent argument that U.S. sovereign bonds are in a blow-off phase.  Since late May through the Friday high, TLT, … Continued

Having Rallied To Right Underneath Jan ‘15 Resistance, TLT Looks Tired N/T

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Economy, Technicals | 0

April’s retail sales released last Friday were better than expected – up 1.3 percent month-over-month and up three percent year-over-year.  This was the largest m/m increase since March last year. Yet, the Treasury yield curve flattened in that session, with … Continued

Markets Not Worried About Inflation Intermediate-Term, They Are Probably Right

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

The Federal Reserve would like some inflation.  In fact, every major central bank would.  Or, for that matter, every debtor would – be it an individual, a corporation, or a sovereign nation. For debtors, a little inflation goes a long … Continued

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