Rates, Budget Deficit, Treasury Debt Issuance And Federal Interest Payments – All Rising

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

Interest rates on both the short and long end have gone up meaningfully. The federal government sits on nearly $33 trillion in debt, and the budget deficit is on the rise even though the economy is growing. This only means … Continued

10-Year T-Yield Not Bothered By Tapering Talk; Of Late, Foreigners Warming Up To Treasury Notes And Bonds

posted in: Credit, Economy, Technicals | 0

At a time when the Fed is getting ready to taper its purchases of treasury bonds, foreigners are warming up to these securities. The 10-year yield cannot break through low-1.40s resistance. In July, foreigners bought $10.2 billion in treasury notes … Continued

Amid Heightened Inflation Worry, 10-Year T-Yield Vulnerable To Downside Surprise

posted in: Credit, Economy, Technicals | 0

As talk around inflation has gone up several notches, the 10-year treasury yield sits on triple support. A breach has room to squeeze TLT shorts. Inflation is front and center. It is perky. As recently as February this year, core … Continued

With Fed Assets And US Stocks In Lockstep, Yellen Suggests Fed Behind The Curve

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen pretty much implied on Tuesday that the Fed is behind the curve, although she tried to walk back her comments later. The economy may be “overheating”, but the Fed is not ready to dial back its … Continued

10-Year Treasury Yield Breaks Out – Fed Remains Wild Card

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After repeated tries for months now, the 10-year Treasury yield finally broke through one percent on Wednesday. After Democrats won the two runoff Senate races in Georgia, markets are betting on more fiscal stimulus in quarters to come. Bond bears … Continued

FOMC Meets Tue; With Leveraged Economy Desperately Needing Low Rates, Fed Cornered

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities | 0

The FOMC meets this week. The Fed already has unlimited QE in place. Not much is expected to come out of this meeting. If anything, aware that low rates are needed, Mr. Powell may drop a hint or two that … Continued

Equities Break Out, More Stimulus Eyed Post-Election, Putting Aside Tax-Hike Risk For Later

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Stocks increasingly are beginning to price in a possible democratic sweep on November 3. Both small- and large-caps staged important technical breakouts last week. They are liking the prospect of more stimulus, that is rising budget deficit. If this scenario … Continued

Foreigners Dumping Treasury Securities, Fed Buying Less – Should Status Quo Continue, Range Breakout Awaits 10-Year Yield

posted in: Credit, Economy, Technicals | 0

Foreigners in the aggregate have been dumping Treasury notes and bonds. The Fed has been buying these securities, but less and less so. Given the soaring budget deficit and the need to issue new debt, the status quo cannot continue. … Continued