CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 3, 2017. 10-year note: Tuesday brought December’s ISM manufacturing index, which rose 1.5 points month-over-month to a two-year high 54.7; orders jumped 6.8 points m/m to a 25-month high.  Ten-year yields … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 27, 2016. 10-year note: TLT, the iShares 20+ year Treasury bond ETF, has had a nasty drop since it reached a historic high of $141.91 on July 8 this year.  Two … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 20, 2016. 10-year note: Ten-year Treasury yields peaked at 15.8 percent in September 1981, then dropping to 1.39 percent by July 2012.  In July this year, those lows were slightly undercut; the … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 13, 2016. 10-year note: With the Fed this week having raised by 25 basis points the fed funds target rate to a range of 0.5 percent to 0.75 percent, its conventional … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 6, 2016. 10-year note: Regardless how Mr. Mario Draghi, ECB president, describes the €20-billion/month reduction in asset purchases beginning next March until December, it looks like tapering, walks like tapering, and … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 29, 2016. 10-year note: From the July 6 (this year) all-time low of 1.34 percent to the Thursday high of 2.49 percent, the 10-year Treasury yield jumped 115 basis point in … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 22, 2016. 10-year note: Like that, 10-year Treasury yields rallied north of 100 basis points in four and a half months – from the all-time low 1.34 percent on July 6 … Continued

Amid Mixed Volatility Messages, Volatility Curve Is One To Listen To Near Term

posted in: Derivatives, Equities | 0

Monday marked a history of sorts. All four major equity indices – the S&P 500 large cap index, Dow Industrials, Nasdaq composite and the Russell 2000 small cap index – broke out to fresh new highs.  The last time this … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 15, 2016. 10-year note: Post-Trump victory, the bond market has swiftly priced in higher inflation.  The U.S. economy is in its eighth year of expansion, although growth remains subdued. On a … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 8, 2016. 10-year note: The 25-basis-point hike in the Fed funds rate last December was the first in nine-plus years.  At 0.4 percent, rates are still zero-bound.  Growth remains sluggish, but … Continued