June Cash-Secured Put On XLP

From the mid-May high of $49.75 to the low this Monday of $47.46, XLP, the SPDR Consumer Staples ETF, quickly lost 4.6 percent.  In three weeks!  Monday produced a doji, right around its 200-day moving average.  By that time, daily … Continued

Wages dynamics in U.S. economy, and why productivity is crucial

posted in: Economy | 0

U.S. wages stuck in mud, more so for supervised employees than for supervisory ECI for private sector has been trending higher since 1Q14; sustainable? Productivity crucial for employers’ ability to absorb wage hikes If there is one consistency in the … Continued

Despite weak macro backdrop, markets pricing in higher inflation!

posted in: Credit, Currency, Economy, Technicals | 0

For only 4th time in six-plus decades, U.S. GDP price deflator goes negative Macro data weaker than expected this week, but rates come under upward pressure Dollar plays crucial role in inflation outlook, breaks support, could be headed toward 92 … Continued

Dow induction alone does not ensure peak in share price

posted in: Equities | 0

AAPL set to join Dow brings out ‘this is top’ talk Historically, tough to argue Dow inclusion ensures top If AAPL peaks, it will be for other business-related reasons AAPL (127.14) is slated to replace T in the Dow Jones … Continued

Amid slowing U.S. productivity, wage hike means margin shrinkage for business

posted in: Economy | 0

Recent WMT announcement notwithstanding, wage stagnation has been a trend 4Q14 U.S. non-farm output per hour goes negative – first drop since 3Q11 Businesses can pay productive workforce higher wages and still win Later this morning, we get February’s U.S. … Continued

Recent wage-hike plans of WMT, TJX, AET one-off or new trend? Margin implications?

posted in: Economy, Equities | 0

Stagnant wages thorn in U.S. recovery’s side WMT, TJX, AET, SBUX, GAP have announced plans to hike wages Be careful what we wish for, given elevated valuation and risk of margin compression? One of the things that have been a … Continued

Odds of continuation — or a lack thereof — of divergence between large- and small-caps

There was an article on MarketWatch.com on Friday entitled “Why lagging small caps might not bring down the S&P 500.”  The title says it all.  The story seeks to justify why prevailing weakness in U.S. small-caps is not a cause … Continued