Trump Dangles Carrot In Front Of Yellen – Financials Likely Casualty

Last Wednesday, speaking to the Wall Street Journal President Trump said that the dollar was getting too strong and that it would eventually hurt the U.S. economy.  In the past, he, as well as Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, have made … Continued

TLT Repelled At Resistance – Likely Headed Lower Near Term

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Economy, Technicals | 0

Last week, bond bulls wasted a big opportunity.  Sort of.  Intraday Friday, 10-year Treasury yields broke down, but only to recover big by close. On December 15 last year, yields hit 2.62 percent before retreating.  This resistance goes back to … Continued

Flatter Yield Curve Makes Fed’s Job Harder – Rally In Financials In Limbo

Ten-year Treasury yields are not going along with the Fed’s tightening posture.  This could be because of a technical reason or yields could be sending an ominous message. Yields reached a historic low 1.34 percent last July, and have been … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 13, 2016. 10-year note: With the Fed this week having raised by 25 basis points the fed funds target rate to a range of 0.5 percent to 0.75 percent, its conventional … Continued

Divergent Price Signal – Prudent To Have One Foot Out The Door

Price is the final arbiter … is an often-quoted axiom in finance.  Has truth in it.  For a trend to establish itself, price has to cooperate.  As long as this continues, there is no use fighting it.  Of course, all … Continued

Infrastructure Spending – Markets Pricing In Too Much Of Good News?

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

“…I want to solve health care, jobs, border control, tax reform.” The above quote is from a weekend interview president-elect Donald Trump gave to the Wall Street Journal. The article also talks about his willingness to keep parts of the … Continued

XLF, Rallying Along 2-Year Treasury Yield, Likely To Offer Opportunity To Shorts In Due Course

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

The correlation between financials and the two-year Treasury yield is tight.  The latter tends to be sensitive to Fed action. In recent months in particular, the two-year has been on a roller-coaster ride trying to keep up with FOMC members’ … Continued

Risk/Reward Favors S&P 500 Shorts Near- To Medium-Term

The chart below (Chart 1) caused a lot of stir last Friday – across asset classes, primarily in the U.S., and elsewhere. The U.S. economy only added 38,000 non-farm jobs in May, much weaker than expected and the lowest monthly … Continued

Having Rallied To Right Underneath Jan ‘15 Resistance, TLT Looks Tired N/T

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Economy, Technicals | 0

April’s retail sales released last Friday were better than expected – up 1.3 percent month-over-month and up three percent year-over-year.  This was the largest m/m increase since March last year. Yet, the Treasury yield curve flattened in that session, with … Continued

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