Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 22, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 261.2k, up 60.7k. Fed funds futures are currently pricing in 40 percent odds of a 25-basis-point increase in December, while September and November are … Continued
The US dollar index (93.44) of late is showing some nice price action. Will it be enough to lead non-commercials to begin to accumulate net longs in US dollar index futures? A sustained rally can reverberate through a whole host … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 11, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 257k, down 5.9k. On Tuesday, markets interpreted Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s Humphrey Hawkins testimony as dovish. Ten-year T-yields fell four basis points to 2.33 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 20, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 345.2k, up 71.2k. Last week, 10-year T-yields lost – albeit ever so slightly – a rising trend line from last July. Back then, yields … Continued
The House pushed through a bill last Thursday aiming at getting rid of many of the Dodd-Frank reforms implemented post-Great Recession. The bill probably does not pass the Senate, but the very idea of less/lax regulations lit a fire under … Continued
U.S. financials are acting lethargic but they have so far managed to cling on to potentially crucial support. Post-presidential election last November, a fire was lit under U.S. financials. Intraday between November 9 and March 2, XLF, the SPDR financial … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 16, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 240k, up 10.9k. Non-commercials nailed it. In the prior week, they had built net longs to the highest since December 2007, and were rewarded. … Continued
Last Wednesday, speaking to the Wall Street Journal President Trump said that the dollar was getting too strong and that it would eventually hurt the U.S. economy. In the past, he, as well as Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, have made … Continued
Last week, bond bulls wasted a big opportunity. Sort of. Intraday Friday, 10-year Treasury yields broke down, but only to recover big by close. On December 15 last year, yields hit 2.62 percent before retreating. This resistance goes back to … Continued
Ten-year Treasury yields are not going along with the Fed’s tightening posture. This could be because of a technical reason or yields could be sending an ominous message. Yields reached a historic low 1.34 percent last July, and have been … Continued