Extremely Overbought Equity Indices That Were Probably Looking For Reason To Sell Off Find One In Last Week’s Spike In Long Rates
An extremely overbought equity market used a spike in long rates as an excuse to lock in profit last week. Maximum complacency is evident in equity options, even as the 10-year sits right... READ MORE
CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 12, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 781.2k, down 34.1k. Minutes for the April 28-29 FOMC meeting will be out next Wednesday. The policy-setting... READ MORE
Semis’ Parabolic Run Perhaps Too Good For Its Own Good; Its Fate Decides That Of Tech, Which Then Decides That Of Large-Caps
Semi stocks have gone parabolic since the March low, helping the Nasdaq 100 attain massive gains; tech, in turn, has helped the broader S&P 500. The magnitude is always debatable, but some level... READ MORE
CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 5, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 815.3k, down 23.9k. The 10-year treasury yield began the week with an intraday tag of 4.46 percent... READ MORE
Options Continue To Give Off Complacency, Non-Commercials Slightly Bearish On Nasdaq Futures, Even As Cash Keeps Setting New Highs
Even as options traders continue to remain complacent but doing so are minting money, non-commercial futures traders just turned bearish on tech shares. Amidst this, some early signs of fatigue are showing up... READ MORE
CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 28, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 839.2k, up 48.2k. It increasingly looks like Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s successor, Kevin Warsh, will have... READ MORE
Risk-On Continues In Equities, But Some Early Signs Of Risk-Off Concurrently Show Up
U.S. equity indices logged another week of gains. They bottomed on March 30. Amidst this feverish risk-on behavior, some early signs of risk-off showed up last week. Tech and small-caps both rose, with... READ MORE
CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 21, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 791k, down 9.4k. The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meets next week. Five more scheduled meetings remain... READ MORE