Semis’ Parabolic Run Perhaps Too Good For Its Own Good; Its Fate Decides That Of Tech, Which Then Decides That Of Large-Caps
Semi stocks have gone parabolic since the March low, helping the Nasdaq 100 attain massive gains; tech, in turn, has helped the broader S&P 500. The magnitude is always debatable, but some level... READ MORE
CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 5, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 815.3k, down 23.9k. The 10-year treasury yield began the week with an intraday tag of 4.46 percent... READ MORE
Options Continue To Give Off Complacency, Non-Commercials Slightly Bearish On Nasdaq Futures, Even As Cash Keeps Setting New Highs
Even as options traders continue to remain complacent but doing so are minting money, non-commercial futures traders just turned bearish on tech shares. Amidst this, some early signs of fatigue are showing up... READ MORE
CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 28, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 839.2k, up 48.2k. It increasingly looks like Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s successor, Kevin Warsh, will have... READ MORE
Risk-On Continues In Equities, But Some Early Signs Of Risk-Off Concurrently Show Up
U.S. equity indices logged another week of gains. They bottomed on March 30. Amidst this feverish risk-on behavior, some early signs of risk-off showed up last week. Tech and small-caps both rose, with... READ MORE
CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 21, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 791k, down 9.4k. The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meets next week. Five more scheduled meetings remain... READ MORE
Amidst Dichotomy Of Record Low Consumer Sentiment And Record Retail Sales, Major Equity Indices Break Out To New Highs
The major US equity indices have all accumulated massive gains over the last three weeks. Rallies of such magnitude over such a short period of time do not occur very often and come... READ MORE
CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 14, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 800.4k, down 23.3k. The 10-year treasury yield is back at testing crucial horizontal support at 4.20s. This... READ MORE