With Sep Hike Looking Probable, Equity Bulls May Have Hard Time To Continue To Sell Story Of Unsustainable Profit Growth Of Last 2 Quarters
An interest-rate hike next month is looking like a certainty. Warsh’s hawkish posture on inflation, which has remained above the Fed’s target for more than five years, comes at a time when corporate... READ MORE
CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 25, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 839k, down 108k. Once again, futures traders have brought rate-hike expectations forward to September (15-16) from December... READ MORE
With Deficit Spending 5%-6% Of GDPn And Government Interest Payments Through The Roof, Bessent Seeks To Mold Long Rates Lower
Markets are confused. Rate-hike expectations on the short end have been pushed back to December from September. Yields, however, are rallying on the long end. Just a few weeks ago, Fed Chair Warsh... READ MORE
CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 18, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 947k, up 31.9k. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is taking on the bond market and could very well... READ MORE
As Investors Intelligence Bearish % Go Sub-15%, S&P 500, Russell 2000 Rally To New Highs, Yet Tech-Heavy Nasdaq 100 Lags
The Nasdaq 100 continues to lag, while the Russell 2000 last week followed on the footsteps of the S&P 500 with a breakout of its own. Bearish investor sentiment in the meantime is... READ MORE
CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 11, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 915.1k, down 64.2k. FOMC minutes for the July 28-29 meeting will be published on Wednesday. During the... READ MORE
S&P 500 Breaks Out, Russell 2000 On Verge Of One, And Laggard Nasdaq 100 Has Work To Do
Broader large-caps broke out to a new high last week responding to a dismal July jobs report and lower oil prices, even as small-caps seem poised for a breakout. But the tech-heavy Nasdaq... READ MORE
CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 4, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 979.2k, up 103.1k. Newly appointed Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh must be heaving a sigh of relief.... READ MORE