Futures Traders Pricing In Quarter-Point Increase In Fed Funds Rate Later This Year, And Russell 2000 Curiously Posts New High Last Week
With the Fed seemingly focused on price stability, and odds of a hike in the benchmark rates rising, small-caps atypically are outperforming their large-cap peers of late. The creation of 57,000 non-farm jobs... READ MORE
Elevated Investor Optimism In Process Of Unwinding, Has Long Ways To Go Before Reaching Extreme To The Other Side
Prospects for higher short rates are kind of taking a toll on equity indices that until recently were pricing in monetary easing this year. The elevated investor optimism has taken a hit but... READ MORE
CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 23, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 835.3k, down 75.8k. Eight days after newly appointed Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh sounded tough on inflation... READ MORE
Warsh Fed To Focus More On Price Stability; Equities, With Huge Gains From Mar lows, Not Likely To Keep Tuning Out Risks Of Higher Rates
Post-FOMC statement last Wednesday, equities sold off, but only to recover quickly. Investors have been preconditioned to buy the dips, with repeated success. The difference this time is that prospects for higher rates... READ MORE
CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 9, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 863.8k, up 34.2k. Newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will be chairing an FOMC meeting for... READ MORE
Equity Bulls Sitting On Tons Of Paper Profit Lock Some In Last Fri, More Likely On The Way
An extremely overbought equity market used a rise in interest rates post-May jobs report as an excuse to lock in gains last Friday. More unwinding probably lies ahead. Until last Thursday, the S&P... READ MORE
CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 2, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 829.6k, up 41.6k. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting will be the first one chaired by Kevin Warsh,... READ MORE
Equity Bulls’ Ability To Persistently Brush Off Potential Risks Probably Draw On Record Corporate Profits
Despite risks pertaining to geopolitics, inflation, interest rates, and what not, US equity indices continue to defy gravity – jumping 20 percent to 30 percent the past couple of months. Corporate profits have... READ MORE