CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 19, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 848.1k, up 66.9k. The fed funds rate currently stands at a target of 350 basis points to... READ MORE
Extremely Overbought Equity Indices That Were Probably Looking For Reason To Sell Off Find One In Last Week’s Spike In Long Rates
An extremely overbought equity market used a spike in long rates as an excuse to lock in profit last week. Maximum complacency is evident in equity options, even as the 10-year sits right... READ MORE
CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 12, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 781.2k, down 34.1k. Minutes for the April 28-29 FOMC meeting will be out next Wednesday. The policy-setting... READ MORE
Semis’ Parabolic Run Perhaps Too Good For Its Own Good; Its Fate Decides That Of Tech, Which Then Decides That Of Large-Caps
Semi stocks have gone parabolic since the March low, helping the Nasdaq 100 attain massive gains; tech, in turn, has helped the broader S&P 500. The magnitude is always debatable, but some level... READ MORE
CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 5, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 815.3k, down 23.9k. The 10-year treasury yield began the week with an intraday tag of 4.46 percent... READ MORE
Options Continue To Give Off Complacency, Non-Commercials Slightly Bearish On Nasdaq Futures, Even As Cash Keeps Setting New Highs
Even as options traders continue to remain complacent but doing so are minting money, non-commercial futures traders just turned bearish on tech shares. Amidst this, some early signs of fatigue are showing up... READ MORE
CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 28, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 839.2k, up 48.2k. It increasingly looks like Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s successor, Kevin Warsh, will have... READ MORE
Risk-On Continues In Equities, But Some Early Signs Of Risk-Off Concurrently Show Up
U.S. equity indices logged another week of gains. They bottomed on March 30. Amidst this feverish risk-on behavior, some early signs of risk-off showed up last week. Tech and small-caps both rose, with... READ MORE